How to read the record.
The chart from the homepage, explained the way we would at a table with you. Read the steps beside it; each one lights up its part of the chart. The numbers are an example: the section as it stood on 23 October.
Part 1The market right now
Not counted, no direction to check: COOLING (WLD, BCH, XMR) · EXITED (HBAR).
Start with the weather
“Before we look at any coin, look at the whole market. Right now it's in Fear.”
Every hour the market gets one word: Fair, Fear, Storm or Panic. Coins behave differently in each, so everything below is counted in this weather only. Under it: the hour this was sealed, in UTC and your own time.
Now the yardstick
“In Fear, if you picked any coin at random, it was lower 6 hours later 58 times out of 100.”
That's the line every state has to beat. In a falling market most coins fall anyway, so "it fell" alone proves nothing.
Pick one state
“Take FALL_SLOWING: coins that were falling, but the fall is slowing down. Since 30 September, a coin entered it in Fear 72 times. In 44% of them, it was no lower 6 hours later.”
"No lower" means the price was the same or higher than when the coin entered the state: the fall did not carry on.
Compare the two bars
“The top bar is the state, the grey one under it is a random coin. Almost the same length.”
A longer top bar means the state did better than chance in this weather.
Read the difference
“44 minus 42: two points. So in Fear, FALL_SLOWING tells you almost nothing extra.”
Green and well above zero: the state has an edge in this weather. Around zero: no edge. Red: worse than chance.
The coins in it
“These six coins were in FALL_SLOWING at that hour.”
Not a tip to buy or sell: it shows where they are, next to how that state has played out before.
Faded rows are early
“EMERGING looks great, +20. But it's faded: only 21 times so far. Keep an eye on it; don't lean on it yet.”
Rows with fewer than 30 times are faded. Small counts swing a lot; they firm up as the hours add up.
Some states aren't counted
“COOLING and EXITED say a move is losing pace or over. There's no 'higher' or 'lower' to check, so we only name them.”
Six hours ago, or live
“What you see here is from 6 hours ago. With Drishti, it's this hour, the moment it's sealed.”
The counts are the same for everyone; only the hour of the coins differs.
Part 2Where a state beat an ordinary coin
an ordinary coin: 57%
an ordinary coin: 42%
an ordinary coin: 60%
The best cases, any weather
“Here we stop looking at today and ask: where has a state really worked? These are the three biggest leads.”
Each card is one state in one weather, from at least 20 times.
Read it like a sentence
“In Fair weather, a WEAKENING coin was lower 6 hours later 80% of the time, 20 times so far. A random coin: 57%.”
The lead is what counts
“80 against 57: 23 points ahead of chance. That's the number we care about, not the 80.”
That's also why each weather gets its own book: a state can lead in one weather and lag in another.
Part 3The full count
Rows and columns
“Each row is a state, each column a weather. So every cell is one question: this state, in this weather, how often did it play out?”
One cell
“62%, plus 20, of 21: EMERGING in Fear was higher 6 hours later 62% of the time, 20 points ahead of a random coin, from 21 times.”
The colours
“Green beat a random coin. Red did worse. Faded means fewer than 20 times: too early to say.”
The last row
“And this is the random coin in each weather, the yardstick for the whole table.”
In Panic, any coin was higher 60% of the time: big swings, often back up. That's why a rising state needs more than 60% there to mean anything.
The honest bit
“Look at the rising states in Fair: mostly red. On their own, they were higher less often than a random coin. That's why we show the yardstick: so you can see this for yourself.”
For referenceThe states and the weather, explained
“Its first time ever among the 3 fastest risers. We have never seen it up there before.”
Every hour the engine ranks the 50 biggest coins by how much they rose over the last 2, 3, 4, 6, 9 and 12 hours. NEW means the coin holds one of the top 3 places on at least one of those windows, and has never held a top-3 place on any window before. It needs at least a day of price history. The move has to be real: up at least 1% over 2 hours or 3% over 6 hours, and not a bounce after a crash (down more than 8% over the day).
NEW lasts one hour at most. The next hour the coin has a history, so it moves on to another state or drops back.
A coin can be in a rising state and a falling state at the same time, on different windows: still among the top 3 over 12 hours, say, while among the worst 3 over 2 hours.
One weather per hour, for the whole market. When more than one applies, Panic comes before Storm, Storm before Fear, and Fear before Fair.
Questions people askCan I trust it?
Where do these numbers come from?
From the sealed hours only. Every hour, the engine's reading of every coin is written into a file; its fingerprint is published at once and written into a public blockchain. The counts are worked out from those files, every hour since 30 September, nothing left out.
Could you have changed an hour afterwards?
No. Change one character of a file and its fingerprint changes, and the old fingerprint is already on the blockchain. Check any hour yourself on the check page.
Why 6 hours?
Long enough for a move to show, short enough that the state is still the reason for it. The same 6 hours for every state and every weather, so the numbers compare.
Is this advice to buy or sell?
No. It is a count of what happened before. It helps you judge how much weight to give a state in today's weather; the decision is yours. Past counts do not promise the next hour.